The economy is K-shaped. The checkout isn’t.

Kearney’s Consumer Institute split each arm of the K three ways — by buffers, shock exposure, and lifestyle, not income. 57% of the bottom of the K describe themselves as financially comfortable or stable; 44% of the top describe themselves as constrained or struggling. Income puts you on an arm. It doesn’t tell anyone which position you’re in at the shelf — and that’s exactly what retail media sells: the purchase moment.

The economy is K-shaped.

Two arms by income: the top 40% and the bottom 60%. Everyone draws this chart — and the story usually stops here.

The industry split it six ways — and stopped.

Kearney kept the arms but cut each one three ways, by buffers and shock exposure, not income. Six areas — every shopper filed into exactly one.

But the consumer isn’t.

Follow the gold dot — one shopper, one year, four positions.

January. Premium diapers, value coffee — two positions in a single basket.
March. A new baby arrives; snacks trade down to protect the diaper budget.
July. The promotion lands; skincare trades up to premium.
October. The car repair; value everywhere, for a while.

The arm doesn’t predict the position.

57% of the bottom of the K describe themselves as comfortable or stable. 44% of the top describe themselves as constrained or struggling. Income puts you on an arm. The shelf decides the rest.

The same shopper trades down and splurges in the same week.

The positions don’t just differ between households — they differ between categories in the same basket. McKinsey’s June 2025 survey of 2,838 consumers across the US, China, Germany, and the UK found more than one-third traded down in one category while planning to splurge in another, and 19% planned to cut a nondiscretionary category while splurging in a discretionary one.

“Unexpected tradeoffs across categories” that “may be confusing to anyone trying to predict what consumers will do next.”
McKinsey — June 2025 consumer survey (n=2,838; US, China, Germany, UK; surveyed Apr 23–May 6, 2025)

NIQ’s September 2026 read with World Data Lab lands in the same place: income and age “are becoming less predictive than a consumer’s mindset in a particular category or shopping occasion.” The demographic label is static. The mindset is per-trip — and only the retailer sees the trip.

The floating is the finding. A household can trade down in one category and spend up in another because the “position” isn’t a person — it’s a person in a category, on a trip.

Globally, retail media passed total TV.

$62.35B
US retail media ad spend in 2025, up 20% year over year — EMARKETER, November 2024 forecast. The spend follows the only targeting key that sees the trip: retailer purchase data.
$177.1B
Global retail media in 2025 — GroupM, December 2024 forecast, passing total TV revenue including streaming ($169B) for the first time. WPP Media’s December 2025 update confirmed the milestone: commerce channels hit $178.2B.

The tollbooth passed the biggest screen. Both figures are GroupM’s December 2024 This Year, Next Year forecast for 2025; EMARKETER’s US figure is its November 2024 forecast. Forecasts, not actuals — WPP Media’s December 2025 update says the crossover happened.

A national spot targets a fixed segment. Retail media targets the purchase moment.

A national spot buys a demographic — an arm of the K. Retail media buys the moment the retailer sees which of the six positions you’re in at this checkout. When the position gets decided at the shelf, the targeting has to live at the shelf too.

If the position gets decided at the shelf, is your media plan built for the person — or for the moment?

What was counted, and what was cut.

Kearney’s six positions. “Hidden dimensions of the K-shaped economy” (Consumer Stress Index, Q4 2025 update) and the Q1 2026 briefing “The confusing consumer.” Top arm (40% of population): comfortable/secure elites above ~$700K, 1%; stable/responsible $160K–$700K, 19%; on thin ice $160K–$700K, 20%. Bottom leg (60% of population, ~35–45% of spending): comfortable $95K–$160K, 20% (~20–30% of spending); stable/responsible ~$30K–$95K and on thin ice below ~$30K make up the rest — Kearney doesn’t split the remainder, so this page doesn’t either.
The crossover. Kearney Q1 2026 survey mapping financial sentiment against income: 57% of bottom-K consumers place themselves in the top three comfort buckets (very comfortable / comfortable / stable); 44% of top-K consumers place themselves in the bottom three (constrained / struggling). Cross-sectional — it shows income and lived financial position crossing over, not the same people tracked moving through all six positions over time.
Behavior. McKinsey, June 2025: n=2,838 consumers, US/China/Germany/UK, surveyed April 23–May 6, 2025. NIQ + World Data Lab, September 8, 2026.
Money. EMARKETER November 2024 forecast (US retail media $62.35B, +20% YoY, 2025). GroupM December 2024 This Year, Next Year (global retail media $177.1B vs total TV incl. streaming $169B, 2025). WPP Media December 2025 update (commerce $178.2B in 2025, crossover confirmed). Forecast figures are labeled as forecasts.
Qual × quant. Quotes explain the mechanism; independent surveys and forecasts document the numbers — never the same source for both.